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This paper is part of the Philippine study for the ERIA project on the Mid-Term Review (MTR) of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) Blueprint. A milestone in ASEAN economic cooperation is the Cebu Declaration on the Acceleration of the Establishment of an ASEAN Community by 2015 during the 12th ASEAN summit in 2007, and subsequently the passing of the ASEAN Charter. A midterm review of where the member countries are in moving toward the AEC is thus timely. At the core of ASEAN integration is free flow of trade in goods. An essential part of the midterm review is an assessment of progress in the area of trade liberalization and facilitation. Toward this end two sets of surveys are undertaken by the study: (1) an MTR Questionnaire for Government Officials, and (2) Firm MTR Survey on Import/Export and Customs Clearance. The questionnaire f...
This paper explores how elderly labor income can be expanded as a financing source for elderly consumption in the future through increase in elderly work activity. It examines elderly living arrangements and other factors that may influence elderly participation in work activities. The prospects of increasing elderly work activity in the future is assessed based on past and possible future trends in the following three factors, among many others: elderly health status, household headship by the elderly, and employment opportunities for the elderly, particularly household entrepreneurial activities.Alternative scenarios of increases in elderly labor force size (based on assumed changes in the factors) were used in simulations and results show that the higher the increase in labor force size (1) the higher the increase in aggregate labor...
The 2007 NTA for the Philippines provides more recent information about which population age groups incur lifecycle deficit, the sizes of the aggregate deficits, and how consumption is financed for the different age groups. It also provides age profiles for consumption and labor income (and components) estimated using 2007 data. The 2007 Philippines NTA serves two main purposes: it provides the update on the economic lifecycle information for the Philippines that was first generated by the 1999 NTA; and it provides updated age profiles for consumption and labor income that can be used to examine the economic implications of change in the size and age structure of Philippine population that is projected for the future.
Philippine population is projected to grow from about 88 million in 2007 to 142 million in 2040. The projected increase in population size will be accompanied by change in the age structure: increase in the percentages of elderly and working-age populations and decrease in the percentage of young population. Increase in population size by itself will drive aggregate consumption and labor income to increase. But this paper also shows that the projected change in the population age distribution will contribute additional increase in both aggregate consumption and labor income. The age structure change can potentially lead to some favorable outcomes: slower increase in aggregate consumption of the young deficit age groups; higher increase in aggregate labor income compared to aggregate consumption overall; and higher proportion of the lif...
Financing of education in the Philippines is mainly by the government (public) and by households (private), and since the 1990s there has been a shift in the public/private mix in education financing toward higher private share. Between 2007 and 2040 the schooling age population of the Philippines is projected to continue to increase in size and the age structure to shift toward higher proportion in the age group that attend the tertiary school level. This paper presents results of simulations of aggregate education consumption or expenditures by age and by income group for two hypothetical scenarios: simulations using an alternative education financing mix (alternative to the 2007 financing mix); and simulations using the 2040 school-age population (in place of the 2007 population).The aggregate age profile simulations for the two sce...
The Philippine government shows its serious effort to combat poverty through the continuing expansion of the Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program (4Ps), the Philippines' version of the conditional cash transfer (CCT) program modeled by Latin American countries. The 4Ps by far is the most comprehensive and also controversial poverty reduction program of the Philippine government because of the huge amount of money the government is spending for this. The expansion of the program since 2008 necessitated the government to secure loans from the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank amounting to a total of $805 million to finance the program. To date, there are already 2.3 million households in 80 provinces who are enrolled in the program. The DSWD targets a total of 3 million household beneficiaries by end of 2012. This paper aims to di...
This paper describes the revised national level estimates of the 2007 Philippines NTA. The differences between the previous and the revised 2007 Philippines NTA Flow Accounts estimates are due to the change in the treatment of overseas Filipino workers' (OFW) remittances: treated as interhousehold transfers in the previous estimates; and treated mainly as labor income (earnings) in the revised estimates. The main changes in the estimates and results are those related to labor income and lifecycle deficit including: (1) the peak ages in per capita earnings and self-employment are both lower by one year at 28 years (previously 29 years) and 44 years (previously 45 years), respectively; (2) lifecycle deficit age cut-off are 24 years (previously 25 years) for the young and 59 years (previously 58 years) for the elderly; and (3) there is ne...
This study proposes a set of indicators for monitoring and evaluation of agricultural policy, patterned after the support estimates of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The main indicators are: producer support (incorporating indirect market support, and direct input support through irrigation, credit, and land transfer); general services support; and public expenditures for agriculture. The study finds that these indicators are viable measures of public support and may be consistently updated over time. Past trends in policy indicators suggest that price policy played the biggest role in agricultural support. Low to negative support to agriculture up to the late 1980s was due largely to indirect taxation of agriculture. From the 1990s onward though the protection structure swung in favor of agriculture ...
The NTA flow accounts for the Philippines for the year 2007 include not only national level estimates but also estimates by income group. Three income groups are defined, referred to as income terciles. This paper examines the financing of consumption by income group. One source of financing is own labor income. But for age groups whose labor income is not sufficient to cover their consumption, mainly the young and elderly, the difference or the lifecycle deficit is financed by resources reallocated between age groups. The income groups differ in the manner the lifecycle deficits are financed.Some key findings include: (1) for the young dependent age group deficit is financed by public alongside private transfers for the bottom tercile while it is almost entirely private transfers for the top tercile; (2) for the young elderly (under 7...
The fruits and vegetables subsector shows great dynamism despite lack of government support compared to other subsectors within agriculture. To further realize the potential of the fruits and vegetables sector, one promising instrument is investment in research and development (R&D). The government is the primary source of funding for agricultural R&D efforts due to the "public good" character of such kind of research. However, the Philippines lags behind its neighbors in Asia in terms of agricultural research investment. Moreover, current R&D investments are skewed toward traditional commodities. This paper assesses the prospective impact at the industry level of fruits and vegetables R&D using the ACIAR-PCAARRD horticulture project as case study. An economic surplus model running on a spreadsheet is used to evaluate measures of proje...
